Turning
Risk Into
Clarity.

Louie Hart — Actuarial Science — Melbourne 2026

Making confident decisions under uncertainty — turning incomplete information into defensible, quantified positions.

Louie Hart
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Research

The Ethical
Actuary.

Independent Research Report · 2026

This report explores the idea that ethical codes inherent to humans could be the modern actuary's best defence and differentiating factor against the coming AI wave — at a time when it feels vital to be thinking about how we can remain relevant and continue to add legitimate value in an AI-dominated corporate climate.

“Ethics is not merely a regulatory overlay within the realm of actuarial work — it is woven into the very fabric of daily practice.”

Read the full report
E[X] = Σ xᵢ · P(xᵢ)
Models

The Work.

Built from first principles — no black boxes. Each model is available to download in full, alongside the underlying quantitative logic.

σ² = E[X²] − (E[X])²
MODEL 01min σ²_p = wᵀΣw

Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimisation Model

Built on Markowitz's modern portfolio theory. Constructs the efficient frontier for up to six securities, identifies the tangent portfolio, and plots optimal risk-return allocations — including short-selling and risk-free lending constraints.

Modern Portfolio TheoryEfficient FrontierMean-VarianceRisk-Return Optimisation
MODEL 02E[U(W)] = Σ pᵢ · U(Wᵢ)

Utility Theory & Security Selection Model

Decision-theoretic framework for optimal security selection under risk aversion. Applies Power (CRRA) and Exponential (CARA) utility functions with tunable risk aversion parameters across discrete return scenarios.

Utility TheoryCRRA / CARADecision Under RiskRisk Aversion
MODEL 03Ĉ = f · C

Actuarial Reserving (Claim Counts) Model

Actuarial reserving model for projecting outstanding claim counts. Applies chain-ladder and development factor techniques to estimate future liabilities from historical claims data.

Actuarial ReservingClaim CountsChain LadderLoss Development
∀ε > 0, ∃δ > 0
Contact

Let's work on
something that
matters.

Open to graduate roles, actuarial internships, and quantitative conversations.